diff --git a/check-qualification.py b/check-qualification.py
index 0bbd568..94d1501 100644
--- a/check-qualification.py
+++ b/check-qualification.py
@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@
 
 from pythonbuild import waiver
 from pythonbuild.qualification import (
+    QUALIFICATION_ROOT,
     QualificationError,
     previous_qualified_tag,
     shipped_api_levels,
@@ -88,15 +89,36 @@ def changed_since(tag: str) -> list[str]:
     return [line for line in result.stdout.splitlines() if line]
 
 
+def _git_tag_exists(tag: str) -> bool:
+    """Whether ``tag`` names a real Git tag in the release checkout."""
+    result = run(["git", "show-ref", "--verify", "--quiet", f"refs/tags/{tag}"])
+    return result.returncode == 0
+
+
+def previous_released_qualified_tag(
+    tag: str, root: Path = QUALIFICATION_ROOT
+) -> str | None:
+    """Newest earlier qualified candidate that was actually released as a Git tag.
+
+    Qualification receipts may intentionally exist for candidates that were never
+    released. Those receipts remain useful evidence, but there is no commit range
+    to diff from unless the candidate also has a Git tag.
+    """
+    previous = previous_qualified_tag(tag, root=root)
+    while previous is not None and not _git_tag_exists(previous):
+        previous = previous_qualified_tag(previous, root=root)
+    return previous
+
+
 def consider_waiver(
     build: Build, tag: str, refusal: QualificationError, report: Path | None
 ) -> int:
     """Permit an unattended release only when the change is upstream's alone."""
-    previous = previous_qualified_tag(tag)
+    previous = previous_released_qualified_tag(tag)
     if previous is None:
         print(
             f"qualification gate: REFUSED\n\n{refusal}\n\n"
-            f"No earlier qualified tag to compare against, so there is nothing a "
+            f"No earlier released qualified tag to compare against, so there is nothing a "
             f"waiver could rest on.",
             file=sys.stderr,
         )
diff --git a/tests/test_check_qualification.py b/tests/test_check_qualification.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..79aeb39
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_check_qualification.py
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+"""Regression tests for the release qualification command."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import runpy
+import unittest
+from pathlib import Path
+from tempfile import TemporaryDirectory
+from types import SimpleNamespace
+from typing import Any, cast
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+SCRIPT = runpy.run_path(str(ROOT / "check-qualification.py"))
+
+
+class ReleasedQualificationHistoryTest(unittest.TestCase):
+    def write_receipt(self, root: Path, tag: str) -> None:
+        directory = root / tag
+        directory.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+        document: dict[str, Any] = {
+            "receipt_kind": "android-device-qualification",
+            "verdict": {"pass": True, "failures": []},
+            "executed_artifact": {
+                "filename": (
+                    f"cpython-3.14.6+{tag}-aarch64-linux-android-"
+                    "install_only_stripped.tar.gz"
+                )
+            },
+            "checks": {"identity": {"android_api_level": 34}},
+        }
+        (directory / "receipt.json").write_text(json.dumps(document), encoding="utf-8")
+
+    def with_git_tags(self, tags: set[str]) -> Any:
+        def fake_run(argv: list[str]) -> SimpleNamespace:
+            ref = argv[-1]
+            return SimpleNamespace(
+                returncode=0 if ref.removeprefix("refs/tags/") in tags else 1,
+                stdout="",
+                stderr="",
+            )
+
+        return fake_run
+
+    def call_with_git_tags(self, tag: str, root: Path, tags: set[str]) -> str | None:
+        function = SCRIPT["previous_released_qualified_tag"]
+        globals_ = function.__globals__
+        original = globals_["run"]
+        globals_["run"] = self.with_git_tags(tags)
+        try:
+            return cast(str | None, function(tag, root=root))
+        finally:
+            globals_["run"] = original
+
+    def test_unreleased_qualified_candidate_is_skipped(self) -> None:
+        with TemporaryDirectory() as tmp:
+            root = Path(tmp)
+            self.write_receipt(root, "20260729")
+            self.write_receipt(root, "20260730")
+            self.assertEqual(
+                self.call_with_git_tags("20260814", root, {"20260729"}),
+                "20260729",
+            )
+
+    def test_no_released_qualified_candidate_returns_none(self) -> None:
+        with TemporaryDirectory() as tmp:
+            root = Path(tmp)
+            self.write_receipt(root, "20260730")
+            self.assertIsNone(self.call_with_git_tags("20260814", root, set()))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    unittest.main()