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MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into from
Jun 6, 2026
+153 −8
Merged

Require holdout and MSRE eCPS wins #246

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61 changes: 61 additions & 0 deletions src/microplex_us/pipelines/mp300k_artifact_gates.py
View file
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1088,6 +1088,10 @@ def _ecps_comparison_gate(
"n_targets_kept": summary.get("n_targets_kept"),
"matched_household_count": contract["matched_household_count"],
"holdout_target_fraction": contract["holdout_target_fraction"],
"candidate_holdout_loss": contract["candidate_holdout_loss"],
"baseline_holdout_loss": contract["baseline_holdout_loss"],
"candidate_unweighted_msre": contract["candidate_unweighted_msre"],
"baseline_unweighted_msre": contract["baseline_unweighted_msre"],
},
details=details,
)
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1244,6 +1248,38 @@ def _ecps_comparison_contract_summary(
elif holdout_targets is not None:
has_holdout_targets = int(holdout_targets) > 0

candidate_holdout_loss = _first_nested_present(
payload,
summary,
"candidate_holdout_loss",
)
baseline_holdout_loss = _first_nested_present(
payload,
summary,
"baseline_holdout_loss",
)
holdout_loss_beats_baseline = _loss_strictly_beats(
candidate_holdout_loss, baseline_holdout_loss
)

candidate_unweighted_msre = _first_nested_present(
payload,
summary,
"candidate_unweighted_msre",
"candidate_msre",
"candidate_mean_unweighted_msre",
)
baseline_unweighted_msre = _first_nested_present(
payload,
summary,
"baseline_unweighted_msre",
"baseline_msre",
"baseline_mean_unweighted_msre",
)
unweighted_msre_beats_baseline = _loss_strictly_beats(
candidate_unweighted_msre, baseline_unweighted_msre
)

protected_summary = _protected_family_floor_summary(payload, summary)
core_benchmark_summary = _core_benchmark_family_floor_summary(payload, summary)
frozen_baseline_summary = _frozen_baseline_certificate_summary(
Expand All @@ -1260,12 +1296,18 @@ def _ecps_comparison_contract_summary(
"ecps_refit_effective": ecps_refit_effective is True,
"frozen_ecps_baseline_certificate": frozen_baseline_summary["passed"] is True,
"holdout_target_split": has_holdout_targets,
"holdout_loss_beats_baseline": holdout_loss_beats_baseline is True,
"unweighted_msre_beats_baseline": (unweighted_msre_beats_baseline is True),
"protected_family_floors": protected_summary["passed"] is True,
"core_benchmark_family_floors": core_benchmark_summary["passed"] is True,
}
return {
"matched_household_count": matched_household_count,
"holdout_target_fraction": holdout_target_fraction,
"candidate_holdout_loss": candidate_holdout_loss,
"baseline_holdout_loss": baseline_holdout_loss,
"candidate_unweighted_msre": candidate_unweighted_msre,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": baseline_unweighted_msre,
"missing_requirements": [
key for key, passed in requirements.items() if not passed
],
Expand All @@ -1279,6 +1321,12 @@ def _ecps_comparison_contract_summary(
"ecps_refit_effective_passed": ecps_refit_effective,
"frozen_ecps_baseline_certificate": frozen_baseline_summary,
"holdout_targets": holdout_targets,
"candidate_holdout_loss": candidate_holdout_loss,
"baseline_holdout_loss": baseline_holdout_loss,
"holdout_loss_beats_baseline": holdout_loss_beats_baseline,
"candidate_unweighted_msre": candidate_unweighted_msre,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": baseline_unweighted_msre,
"unweighted_msre_beats_baseline": unweighted_msre_beats_baseline,
"protected_family_floor": protected_summary,
"core_benchmark_family_floor": core_benchmark_summary,
},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1551,6 +1599,19 @@ def _float_equal(left: Any, right: Any, *, tolerance: float = 1e-12) -> bool:
return abs(float(left) - float(right)) <= tolerance


def _loss_strictly_beats(candidate: Any, baseline: Any) -> bool | None:
if candidate is None or baseline is None:
return None
try:
candidate_value = float(candidate)
baseline_value = float(baseline)
except (TypeError, ValueError):
return None
if not np.isfinite(candidate_value) or not np.isfinite(baseline_value):
return None
return candidate_value < baseline_value


def _first_nested_present(
payload: Any,
summary: dict[str, Any],
Expand Down
86 changes: 82 additions & 4 deletions tests/pipelines/test_mp300k_artifact_gates.py
View file
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -195,6 +195,10 @@ def _sound_ecps_comparison_payload(
*,
candidate_loss: float = 0.12,
baseline_loss: float = 0.20,
candidate_holdout_loss: float = 0.03,
baseline_holdout_loss: float = 0.04,
candidate_unweighted_msre: float = 0.10,
baseline_unweighted_msre: float = 0.17,
) -> dict[str, object]:
fit_config = {
"lambda_l0": 0.0,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -258,8 +262,8 @@ def _sound_ecps_comparison_payload(
"scoring_config": {"sha256": "e" * 64},
"baseline_metrics": {
"baseline_enhanced_cps_native_loss": baseline_loss,
"baseline_holdout_loss": 0.04,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": 0.17,
"baseline_holdout_loss": baseline_holdout_loss,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": baseline_unweighted_msre,
},
},
"summary": {
Expand All @@ -274,8 +278,10 @@ def _sound_ecps_comparison_payload(
"baseline_refit_config": fit_config,
"refit_objective_matches_scoring": True,
"ecps_refit_effective_passed": True,
"baseline_holdout_loss": 0.04,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": 0.17,
"candidate_holdout_loss": candidate_holdout_loss,
"baseline_holdout_loss": baseline_holdout_loss,
"candidate_unweighted_msre": candidate_unweighted_msre,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": baseline_unweighted_msre,
"holdout_target_fraction": 0.2,
"protected_family_losses": protected_family_losses,
},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1528,6 +1534,78 @@ def test_ecps_comparison_requires_measured_refit_objective_identity(tmp_path):
assert ecps_gate["details"]["refit_objective_matches_scoring"] is None


def test_ecps_comparison_rejects_adverse_holdout_loss(tmp_path):
artifact_dir = tmp_path / "artifact"
artifact_dir.mkdir()
_write_contract_policyengine_dataset(artifact_dir / "candidate.h5")
baseline_dataset = _write_contract_policyengine_dataset(tmp_path / "baseline.h5")
benchmark_manifest = tmp_path / "benchmark_manifest.json"
_write_benchmark_manifest(benchmark_manifest)
_write_artifact_manifest(artifact_dir, baseline_dataset=baseline_dataset)
payload = _sound_ecps_comparison_payload(
candidate_loss=0.10,
baseline_loss=0.20,
candidate_holdout_loss=0.050,
baseline_holdout_loss=0.040,
)

report_path = write_mp300k_artifact_gate_report(
artifact_dir,
ecps_comparison_payload=payload,
arch_coverage_payload=_arch_coverage_payload(),
runtime_smoke_payload={"runtime_ratio": 1.0},
benchmark_manifest_path=benchmark_manifest,
compute_native_scores=False,
update_manifest=False,
)

record = json.loads(report_path.read_text())
ecps_gate = record["gates"]["ecps_comparison"]

assert record["summary"]["status"] == "failed"
assert ecps_gate["status"] == "fail"
assert "holdout_loss_beats_baseline" in ecps_gate["summary"]
assert ecps_gate["metrics"]["candidate_holdout_loss"] == pytest.approx(0.050)
assert ecps_gate["metrics"]["baseline_holdout_loss"] == pytest.approx(0.040)
assert ecps_gate["details"]["holdout_loss_beats_baseline"] is False


def test_ecps_comparison_rejects_adverse_unweighted_msre(tmp_path):
artifact_dir = tmp_path / "artifact"
artifact_dir.mkdir()
_write_contract_policyengine_dataset(artifact_dir / "candidate.h5")
baseline_dataset = _write_contract_policyengine_dataset(tmp_path / "baseline.h5")
benchmark_manifest = tmp_path / "benchmark_manifest.json"
_write_benchmark_manifest(benchmark_manifest)
_write_artifact_manifest(artifact_dir, baseline_dataset=baseline_dataset)
payload = _sound_ecps_comparison_payload(
candidate_loss=0.10,
baseline_loss=0.20,
candidate_unweighted_msre=0.30,
baseline_unweighted_msre=0.17,
)

report_path = write_mp300k_artifact_gate_report(
artifact_dir,
ecps_comparison_payload=payload,
arch_coverage_payload=_arch_coverage_payload(),
runtime_smoke_payload={"runtime_ratio": 1.0},
benchmark_manifest_path=benchmark_manifest,
compute_native_scores=False,
update_manifest=False,
)

record = json.loads(report_path.read_text())
ecps_gate = record["gates"]["ecps_comparison"]

assert record["summary"]["status"] == "failed"
assert ecps_gate["status"] == "fail"
assert "unweighted_msre_beats_baseline" in ecps_gate["summary"]
assert ecps_gate["metrics"]["candidate_unweighted_msre"] == pytest.approx(0.30)
assert ecps_gate["metrics"]["baseline_unweighted_msre"] == pytest.approx(0.17)
assert ecps_gate["details"]["unweighted_msre_beats_baseline"] is False


def test_runtime_gate_ignores_contradictory_producer_verdict(tmp_path):
artifact_dir = tmp_path / "artifact"
artifact_dir.mkdir()
Expand Down
14 changes: 10 additions & 4 deletions tests/pipelines/test_mp300k_gate_inputs.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -191,6 +191,10 @@ def _sound_ecps_comparison_payload() -> dict[str, object]:
]
candidate_loss = 0.1
baseline_loss = 0.2
candidate_holdout_loss = 0.03
baseline_holdout_loss = 0.04
candidate_unweighted_msre = 0.10
baseline_unweighted_msre = 0.17
return {
"frozen_ecps_baseline_certificate": {
"schema_version": 1,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -218,8 +222,8 @@ def _sound_ecps_comparison_payload() -> dict[str, object]:
"scoring_config": {"sha256": "e" * 64},
"baseline_metrics": {
"baseline_enhanced_cps_native_loss": baseline_loss,
"baseline_holdout_loss": 0.04,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": 0.17,
"baseline_holdout_loss": baseline_holdout_loss,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": baseline_unweighted_msre,
},
},
"summary": {
Expand All @@ -234,8 +238,10 @@ def _sound_ecps_comparison_payload() -> dict[str, object]:
"baseline_refit_config": fit_config,
"refit_objective_matches_scoring": True,
"ecps_refit_effective_passed": True,
"baseline_holdout_loss": 0.04,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": 0.17,
"candidate_holdout_loss": candidate_holdout_loss,
"baseline_holdout_loss": baseline_holdout_loss,
"candidate_unweighted_msre": candidate_unweighted_msre,
"baseline_unweighted_msre": baseline_unweighted_msre,
"holdout_target_fraction": 0.2,
"protected_family_losses": protected_family_losses,
},
Expand Down
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